A complex low will move in from the west this evening and strong gusty winds return with bouts of unsettled weather through midweek as a series of troughs move through our area. Cooler temperatures continue over the coming days.
A broad trough lingers to our north in the wake of the departed cold front. This pattern will maintain windy conditions and drive blustery showers through the end of the week as the trough slowly exits to the east. Noticeably cooler temperatures are expected over the coming days.
Windy conditions continue today as a low pressure develops to the northwest. Winds strengthen further and a period of gales develops later this afternoon into Wednesday as the low drags a cold front across the area. Wet weather follows into the night, before the front exits and leaves a blustery pattern with showers lasting into Thursday.
ATLC GALE WARNING... .ATLC WITHIN 31N68W TO 31N81W TO 30N81W TO 28N76W TO 29N70W TO 31N68W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N47W TO 31N54W TO 29N60W TO 28N55W TO 28N52W TO 31N47W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. WITHIN 31N56W TO 31N66W TO 30N64W TO 30N58W TO 31N56W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N72W TO 27N68W TO 22N53W TO 22N35W TO 31N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT IN NW SWELL. .36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N50W TO 31N52W TO 30.5N51.5W TO 30.5N50.5W TO 30.5N50W TO 31N50W W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N49W TO 31N57W TO 29N56W TO 28N55W TO 31N49W NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. WITHIN 31N39W TO 31N49W TO 28N54W TO 26N50W TO 28N44W TO 31N39W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N69W TO 23N58W TO 20N42W TO 22N35W TO 31N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N40W TO 27N43W TO 26N40W TO 28N35W TO 31N35W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. WITHIN 31N40W TO 31N49W TO 28N48W TO 27N45W TO 30N41W TO 31N40W NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N66W TO 25N63W TO 18N51W TO 16N35W TO 31N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL.
Sub-tropical storm Nicole to the distant southwest will continue to send spells of cloudy and wet weather across the Island, before a cold front sweeps in from the north on Wednesday, introducing drier and brighter conditions. It will turn increasingly windy as the cold front moves across the area.
Strong high pressure to the north and developing low pressure to the distant south will maintain breezy conditions into the start of the new week. The low will send increasingly showery conditions towards the Island tomorrow and into Tuesday.
A weak frontal boundary nears the island from the northwest this afternoon bringing cloudier skies, breezy to windy conditions and a few showers. The front will clear the area by this evening, though windy conditions remain in its wake persisting into the weekend. Brighter skies are poised to return from tomorrow with seasonal temperatures.
1. Southwestern Atlantic: A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A surface low pressure system is forecast to emerge along the northern portion of the trough axis tonight or Friday, and some subsequent development could occur through Saturday. By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development, and the low is expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Conditions will gradually deteriorate as an area of low pressure approaches from the south-southwest. Expect cloudy periods and an increasing likelihood of rain or showers, as well as occasionally breezy weather for a few days.
Hurricane Fiona is a “potential threat to Bermuda”, the Bermuda Weather Service said, with its closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hours forecast to be 377 nm to the SW at 6am on Thursday [Sept 22] with the BWS noting “this system may move closer to Bermuda after this time period depending upon its track.”
The BWS discussion noted that the models suggest that Fiona could bring “storm force winds and hurricane force gusts during the late night on Thursday into early Friday morning” and said that a “hurricane watch may be issued from as early as Tuesday.”
Hurricane Earl continues to approach from the south and is expected to show signs of tracking farther to the northeast this afternoon as it intensifies. Local conditions will rapidly deteriorate. Tropical storm winds are expected late this afternoon into early Friday with gusts near hurricane force at times within heavy showers and widespread rain as rain bands spread across the region. Dangerous seas with rip currents and hazardous surf will continue along coastal areas.
Strong southerly winds will strengthen further as a robust low pressure system moves in from the west. Occasional gale force wind may gust near storm force, especially at elevated or exposed locations or within periods of showers that may be heavy at times as well as any thunderstorms that might form. The front clears to the east tonight and for the rest of the week much colder temperatures and blustery showers are expected.
WANDA HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES ERRATICALLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
Low pressure to the south merges with a cold front approaching from the west thus igniting rainy and thundery periods, while southerly wind increases through much of today. Aside from isolated showers, the island improves on Sunday into early Monday as high pressure passes to our north.
Hurricane Epsilon intensified to a “major” Category 3 storm on Wednesday, picking up 50 mph in wind speed in 24 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The 10th hurricane of an extremely active Atlantic season, Epsilon has prompted a tropical storm warning for Bermuda, though the storm is forecast to miss the tiny island nation.
Even if the center of the hurricane does not hit Bermuda, its outer winds are expected to affect the island, as tropical-storm-force winds extend as many as 345 miles out from the center of the hurricane. Epsilon should make its closest approach to Bermuda on Thursday evening.
Hurricane Teddy having reached Category 4 strength begins its approach to Bermuda causing increased wave activity seen from the South Shore and is expected to cross the island as a Category 2 hurricane 100 miles from land on Monday, September 21st 2020.
Hurricane Teddy is a threat to Bermuda
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Bermuda
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hours is forecast to be 104 nm to the ESE, 12pm, Monday, September 21st 2020. However the system may move closer to Bermuda after this time period depending on its track.
We continue to monitor Hurricane Teddy as it intensifies to our distant southeast, and is now considered a potential threat to Bermuda.
|Sep 16||09:00 GMT||15.8||-49||100 mph||976 mb||Hurricane||2|
|Sep 16||15:00 GMT||16.5||-49.7||100 mph||973 mb||Hurricane||2|
|Sep 16||21:00 GMT||17.5||-50.8||100 mph||973 mb||Hurricane||2|
|Sep 17||03:00 GMT||17.8||-51.5||90 mph||976 mb||Hurricane||1|
|Sep 17||09:00 GMT||18.3||-52.3||105 mph||970 mb||Hurricane||2|
|Sep 17||15:00 GMT||19.3||-53||120 mph||957 mb||Hurricane||3|
Expect a return of hazardous swells and very unsettled conditions late this weekend into early next week as it merges with an approaching front moving in from the northwest.
As of the 11 p.m. update, Tropical Storm Teddy was on track to strengthen into a powerful Category 3 hurricane, and its track led in the direction of Bermuda.
Teddy, which formed Monday morning, was about 1,100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Monday evening. It was moving west near 13 mph with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph with higher gusts.
Forecasters said Teddy could strengthen into a hurricane as soon as Tuesday as the storm heads northwest toward Bermuda. The warm water, which is a few degrees hotter than average this year, is expected to help Teddy hit major hurricane-level strength by Thursday.
Hurricane Paulette: Monday, September 14th 2020.
By Leigh Morgan
Tropical Storm Paulette remained near hurricane strength on Saturday while tracking steadily closer to Bermuda, where a hurricane warning has been issued.
The National Hurricane Center said Paulette could become a hurricane tonight, and it could pass near or over Bermuda on Monday morning.
Forecasters were also tracking Tropical Storm Sally, which appeared headed for the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane next week, Tropical Depression Rene, which is no threat to land, Tropical Depression 20, which is also no immediate threat to land, and two other tropical waves as of Saturday.
The westernmost system, Paulette, is expected to remain at tropical storm strength for the next few days. It is being hindered right now by unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air. However, its wind shear is expected to diminish by this weekend, which is expected to allow it to strengthen to a hurricane.
Furthermore, Paulette is expected to curl north early next week, then northeast over the Atlantic Ocean after that. How sharp that northward curl is and the timing of that turn is important, as it could bring the center of Paulette near Bermuda early next week, likely at hurricane strength.
Those in Bermuda should monitor the forecast closely.
Swells generated by Paulette will spread from the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to the Bahamas and the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Dangerous rip currents and breaking waves can be expected at the beaches.
OMAR: became the record-earliest 15th storm of any Atlantic hurricane season.
ISAIAS REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE… …STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY…
Jerry, Karen & Lorenzo 9/23/2019
BWS – Bermuda Weather Service9 hrs
Jerry is currently a Tropical Storm, but NHC forecast intensifies it to a Hurricane as it passes Bermuda within 100nm in 72hrs (making it a THREAT). As we have witnessed recently, forecast intensity can change dramatically in the days leading up to the passage of a tropical system. Please keep updated with the latest BWS information. Tropical Update Bulletins are released 12am/pm & 6am/pm local time. Under watch or warning there is an intermediate advisory which gives an update to the current position and intensity, but not the forecast track- that is found only in the full advisories.
12 noon Sat 21 Sept: JERRY NOW A THREAT
Saturday Morning Update on Jerry:
– It is currently a Tropical Storm
– BWS; Remains a ‘potential threat to Bermuda’
– NHC: Fluctuations in strength likely during next days
– More info: http://bernews.com/Jerry19
Jerry Upgraded to Category 1 Hurricane With 11 Storm Systems Brewing in the Atlantic & Pacific
Hurricane Jerry 9/20/2019
As of 5:00 a.m. AST (09:00 UTC) September 20, Hurricane Jerry is located within 20 nautical miles of 18.4°N 58.7°W, about 290 mi (465 km) east of the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kn (105 mph; 165 km/h), with gusts to 110 kn (125 mph; 205 km/h)). The minimum barometric pressure is 981 mbar (28.97 inHg), and the system is moving west-northwest at 14 kn (16 mph; 26 km/h). Hurricane-force winds extend up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center of Jerry, and tropical storm-force winds up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.
Hurricane Jerry remained a Category 2 storm Friday morning but is expected to weaken throughout the weekend, according the National Hurricane Center’s 5 a.m. update.
Jerry is moving west-northwest at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. It is about 290 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands and is expected to dump heavy rains over the islands as it passes them to the north later today.
Hurricane Humberto 9/19/2019.
Humberto started producing hurricane-force winds on Bermuda at around 8 p.m. ADT on Wednesday, September 18. By early Thursday morning, Humberto left more than 80% of the island, over 27,900 customers, without power, plunging the island into a blackout. The Bermuda Fire and Rescue Service reported seventeen minor incidents of gas leaks, nine medical incidents, and three structural fires that were caused by Humberto.
Governor of Bermuda, John Rankin, called up to 120 members of the Royal Bermuda Regiment to prepare for recovery efforts. The Minister of National Security in Bermuda, Wayne Caines, stated that schools, government offices, and ferries on Bermuda closed at noon and bus services stopped at 4 p.m.
Hurricane Humberto 9/18/2019.
Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) is forecast to be 78 nm to the NW, 8 pm Wed, Sep 18, 2019. However, this system may move closer to Bermuda after this time period depending upon its track.
Current Position: 32.2N 68.1W approx. 168 nm W of Bermuda
Recent Movement: ENE or 65 degrees at 14 kt
Hurricane Humberto has been upgraded to a CAT 3.
Hurricane Humberto is the eighth named storm, third hurricane, and second major hurricane in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Humberto is currently active and is expected to produce hurricane-force winds in Bermuda.
5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 18
Location: 31.7°N 69.6°W
Moving: ENE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
Humberto reached Category 3 major hurricane strength on Tuesday night as it tracked closer to Bermuda. The powerful hurricane is expected to skirt just north of the islands with rain, wind and pounding seas.
As of 5 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Humberto was located about 285 miles west of Bermuda and moving east-northeast at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph with higher gusts. A hurricane warning is in effect for Bermuda.
Hurricane Humberto was upgraded to a major Category 3 hurricane overnight as Bermuda wakes up this morning under a hurricane warning for the local area.
As of 10pm Tuesday night, the storm was located some 405 miles WSW of the island, moving and picking up speed, packing winds up to 115 mph.
Forecasters also say the pressure has dropped to 951mb, with little change in the forecast track.
Satellite images show that Humberto will likely maintain Cat 3 strength as it passes through the local area Wednesday night, with hurricane force winds extending more than 60 miles out from its centre.
As the storm continues to strengthen on its current trek toward Bermuda, maximum sustained winds have picked up to 185 km/h.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the forecast track has drifted north, which has lowered the risk of a landfall on Bermuda, but the island remains in harm’s way as the storm approaches.
The NHC expects the storm to remain a powerful hurricane through Thursday.
“Though the centre of the storm is expected to pass just north of Bermuda, Humberto is a large hurricane with an expansive wind field, and that means Bermuda will likely see near-hurricane-force conditions sometime late on Wednesday, even with a near miss.
“Tropical storm winds are expected to impact Bermuda by Wednesday afternoon and linger through Thursday morning and heavy rainfall — as much as 150 mm for some — is expected as the storm passes.
“Humberto will also drive dangerously large ocean swells and breaking waves for Bermuda as well as the southeast coast of the United States for the next few days. Storm surge and large waves are expected to cause flooding in Bermuda, particularly along the southern coast on Wednesday night and Thursday,” the NHC said.
The hurricane is expected to turn fully to the northeast into Thursday.
The storm continues to strengthen on its current trek toward Bermuda, maximum sustained winds have picked up to 185 km/h. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the forecast track has drifted north, which has lowered the risk of a landfall on Bermuda, but the island remains in harm’s way as the storm approaches.The NHC expects the storm to remain a powerful hurricane through Thursday…Be SAFE – Bermuda #BermudaReal
HURRICANE HUMBERTO E.M.O. UPDATE ADVISORY:
This Just In:
Everybody should be off the roads by 7pm Wednesday evening.
All public schools will close at 12pm
The last ferry will leave Hamilton at 12pm
All buses will be off the roads at 5pm with the last bus leaving at 4pm
All government offices will close at 12noon and reopen as per
normal on Thursday.
Wednesday’s trash collection will take place on Wednesday
morning. All trash should be on the curb side by 7am. No trash
will be collected after noon or on Thursday.
Access to the causeway will be restricted to emergency vehicles only as of 7pm Wednesday.
The public are strongly advised not to use the
Causeway after this time.
The Bermuda regiment will be embodied.
King Edward will initiate their Hospital Incident Command
tomorrow evening with increased staffing levels.
Ambulances will be strategically assigned around the island.
Belco will have members of staff also position in east, west and central parishes.
Cedarbridge Academy will be open as the storm shelter for those who need from 5pm
The emergency broadcast channel will be live as of 7pm and will provide updates throughout the night.
The public are strongly advised to avoid the roads until given the all clear by the EMO.
No Lifeguards as of 2pm Wednesday and the beaches will close at 6pm.
There will be no outpatient clinics tomorrow.
The next emo meeting will be tomorrow at 10am.
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Hurricane Humberto 9/17/2019.
Hurricane Humberto continues to gain power as it heads west into the northern Atlantic where it is expected to become a major storm, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 a.m. update.
The Cat. 1 Hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 90 mph with higher gusts and is moving at about 8 mph.
“This general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday,” the NHC said. “On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night.”
Some strengthening is forecast within the next 36 hours where meteorologists expect Humberto to become a major hurricane by Tuesday or Wednesday.
While Humberto is moving away from the United States, the storm’s “life-threatening” swells will still impact the southeastern coast of the country from Central Florida to North Carolina as well as the northeastern Bahamas, the NHC said.
There are two tropical waves in the nearby area meteorologists are keeping their eyes on: the first is in the Gulf of Mexico and has a low chance of development, the second is located in the central tropical Atlantic and has an 90 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next five days.
Hurricane Humberto 9/16/2019
Tropical Storm Humberto 9/15/2019.
On September 12, at 21:00 UTC, the NHC initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. 24 hours later it developed into a tropical depression. On the same day, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Humberto.
Current storm information
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT (09:00 UTC) September 15, Tropical Storm Humberto is located within 30 nautical miles of 28.3°N 77.7°W, about 135 mi (220 km) north-northwest of Great Abaco Island and about 175 mi (285 km) east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kn (60 mph; 95 km/h), with gusts to 60 kn (70 mph; 110 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 1000 mbar (29.53 inHg), and the system is moving north-northwest at 6 kn (7 mph; 11 km/h). Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Humberto.
For latest official information, see: